Speakers: Tim Phillips and Eva | Tobacco Intelligence
Europe’s fragmented approach to nicotine pouch regulation is creating significant challenges for market oversight, with restrictions and differences in taxation contributing to the growth of illicit trade.
During GINN’s October 2026 webinar, Tim Phillips and Eva from Tobacco Intelligence presented findings from their latest research into Europe’s illicit nicotine pouch market, examining how national policies influence consumer behaviour and cross-border distribution.
Their research estimates the global nicotine pouch market at approximately US$10 billion, with around 20 million users and annual growth of 44%. Despite this expansion, regulatory approaches across Europe remain inconsistent. Excise duties range from approximately €190 per kilogram in Finland to less than €10 in Bulgaria and Malta, while some countries impose substantial restrictions on legal sales.
Germany was highlighted as a particularly significant case. Tobacco Intelligence estimates its nicotine pouch market at nearly €200 million annually, operating outside established legal retail channels. In France, consumer research found that approximately 60% of surveyed nicotine pouch users were unaware of the impending ban, with little change in awareness three months after its introduction.
Finland provided further evidence of the difficulties involved in reducing illicit trade. Before regulatory reforms, approximately 94% of nicotine pouch cans consumed were estimated to originate outside the domestic market. Despite subsequent changes, the researchers reported that close to half of the market remained illicit in 2026, suggesting that established supply networks and purchasing habits can persist even when legal access improves.
The presentation also considered proposals to restrict product innovation within the EU. Phillips cautioned that limiting development in the regulated market could encourage consumers to seek newer products through channels operating outside European oversight.
Their findings underline the importance of considering enforcement and consumer behaviour alongside regulatory restrictions. More consistent product rules, effective market surveillance and accessible legal supply may help reduce incentives for illicit trade, although the effectiveness of these measures will depend on national circumstances and implementation.
